EpRegime Change: A Short History Lesson

Mar 3
4 min read

For those of you who don’t geek out on history as much as I do — or who just weren’t around to remember most of these — I want to talk about something that keeps popping up in our national conversation:

Regime change.

It sounds abstract. Strategic. Clean.

But the United States has a long history of attempting to remove, replace, undermine, or collapse foreign governments it viewed as hostile or destabilizing. Sometimes it worked. Sometimes it failed. And sometimes it “worked”… but came with consequences that reshaped entire regions for decades.

If we’re going to talk seriously about foreign policy today, we need to understand that history.

Let’s start with a famous failure.

In 1961, the U.S. backed and trained Cuban exiles to invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro in what became known as the Bay of Pigs invasion. The plan assumed a popular uprising would follow. It didn’t. The invasion collapsed within days. Castro strengthened his grip on power and moved even closer to the Soviet Union — contributing directly to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Regime change didn’t just fail. It escalated tensions.

Now let’s talk about a “success.”

In 1953, the CIA helped orchestrate the overthrow of Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, after he nationalized Iran’s oil industry. The Shah was restored to power. Short term, Washington achieved its objective. Long term? The Shah ruled as an authoritarian monarch, resentment grew, and in 1979 the Iranian Revolution brought the current Islamic Republic to power — defining U.S.-Iran hostility ever since.

It worked — until it didn’t.

A year later, in 1954, the U.S. backed the overthrow of Guatemala’s President Jacobo Árbenz after land reforms threatened American corporate interests. That regime change succeeded. But what followed was decades of civil war, repression, and massive civilian casualties. The instability in Central America that later drove migration northward did not emerge in a vacuum.

Then there’s Vietnam.

The U.S. intervened heavily to prevent a communist takeover of South Vietnam. After years of war and enormous human cost, Saigon fell in 1975. The intended regime outcome did not occur.

In Iraq, we saw both failure and success — with sobering results.

After the 1991 Gulf War, President George H. W. Bush encouraged Iraqis to rise up against Saddam Hussein. They did. But the U.S. did not intervene to support them, and Saddam crushed the uprisings. Regime change failed.

In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq under President George W. Bush and removed Saddam Hussein. That regime change succeeded in its immediate objective. But what followed was a power vacuum, sectarian violence, prolonged insurgency, thousands of American deaths, and eventually the rise of ISIS. Removing a government proved easier than stabilizing what came next.

Afghanistan tells a similar story. In the 1980s, the U.S. supported fighters against the Soviet-backed government. After the Soviets withdrew, civil war followed and the Taliban rose to power. The U.S. removed the Taliban in 2001 — only to see them return after the American withdrawal in 2021.

What counts as success?

In Syria, the U.S. called for Bashar al-Assad to step down and supported rebel groups beginning in 2011. Assad remains in power, backed by Russia and Iran.

In Venezuela, the U.S. recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president in 2019 and imposed heavy sanctions on Nicolás Maduro. The expected collapse never came. Maduro remains in power.

North Korea’s regime has endured for more than seventy years despite war, sanctions, and international pressure.

The pattern across decades is sobering: Removing a government is sometimes possible. Building a stable replacement is much harder. Sanctions alone rarely cause collapse. External pressure can strengthen hardliners. And blowback can take decades to reveal itself.

Regime change isn’t new. It isn’t theoretical. It’s part of modern American foreign policy history.

And history suggests it’s rarely simple.

Before we casually talk about removing another government anywhere in the world, it’s worth asking: What happens the day after? Who fills the vacuum? What unintended consequences might follow?

Because the consequences don’t stay overseas. They shape the world — and eventually, they shape us.

Sources

General Overviews

Council on Foreign Relations – “Regime Change: U.S. Policy and Historical Cases”https://www.cfr.org
Congressional Research Service (CRS) – U.S. Foreign Policy Reportshttps://crsreports.congress.gov

Iran (1953 Coup)

National Security Archive – “CIA Confirms Role in 1953 Iran Coup”https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/iran/2013-08-19/cia-confirms-role-1953-coup
BBC – “Iran Coup 1953: What Really Happened?”https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-16047709

Guatemala (1954 Coup)

National Security Archive – “CIA and Guatemala Assassination Proposals”https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/project/guatemala
PBS – American Experience: “Guatemala 1954”https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/fruits-of-war-guatemala/

Bay of Pigs (1961)

John F. Kennedy Presidential Libraryhttps://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/the-bay-of-pigs
CIA Historical Review Programhttps://www.cia.gov/readingroom/collection/bay-pigs

Vietnam War

U.S. National Archives – Vietnam War Overviewhttps://www.archives.gov/research/military/vietnam-war
History.com – Vietnam Warhttps://www.history.com/topics/vietnam-war

Iraq (1991 & 2003)

U.S. Department of Defense – Gulf War Historyhttps://history.defense.gov
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence – Iraq WMD Reporthttps://www.intelligence.senate.gov

Afghanistan

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) Reportshttps://www.sigar.mil
Council on Foreign Relations – “U.S. War in Afghanistan”https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/war-afghanistan

Syria